3-1 on the Year

15 Dime Plays

Winner - Texas-El Paso (-3') by 14 at Tulsa - March 12

Winner - Kansas State (-4') by 12 over BYU - March 20

Winner - Duke (-8') by 13 over Purdue - March 26

Super Bowl Sunday

15 Dime Play

Colts - Loser

Yes, I lost the Super Bowl. And like I told you in advance, it was just a 15 dime play, no different than the same 15 dime plays I went 8-1-1 the previous 10 NFL Sundays. No different than the same 15 dime plays I'm 26-8-2 the past two NFL seasons combined.

If you weren't with me for all the winners; sorry, but whose fault is that?

Bottom Line: I didn't tell you to put the house payment on the Colts or to take a loan out for the wager. I used the same money-managment principles that have me up 356 Dimes the past two years in the NFL and 372 dimes the past 17 months in ALL sports.

Unlike some guys in this business who had movies made about their life, I didn't come with some outrageously rated play just because it was the Super Bowl. I told you repeatedly, it was just another game and to be a successful WINNING handicapper - which the numbers above prove again that I am - you must always adhere to your money management principles. What kind of financial advisor would I be if I didn't do that?

26-8-2 with 15 Dimers past two seasons

including 8-2-1 the final 11 Sundays

of the year
 

Sunday, January 17

15 Dime Play

Vikings - Winner

This is what I told you....

My Best Bet last Saturday was Dallas and part of the reason why was because I thought the Eagles were simply a bad team, one that the Cowboys had trounced a week earlier and I thought a repeat performance was on the docket. And, as you saw, that's exactly what happened as the Pokes, who won the regular season finale 24-0, scored 27 unanswered points in the second quarter en route to a 34-14 blowout.

How ironic that the Cowboys, coming off a win over the Eagles, now carry a four-game winning streak into a road game with an NFC North squad. Don't tell me that you don't recall the exact same scenario played out earlier this season. Remember? The 'Boys followed their road upset of the Birds in Philly with a trip to Lambeau and got upset themselves the next week by the Packers 17-7.

A couple of things play into my choice of Minnesota in this contest. First, the oddsmakers - and betting public - are giving the Cowboys way too much credit for consecutive routs of the Eagles, who as I've told you repeatedly, simply aren't any good. And let's back-up a moment. Three weeks ago they shutout the Redskins 17-0. Big deal. And the 24-17 win at New Orleans against the then-unbeaten Saints, who were crippled injury-wise both defensively and at running back, should have been expected with the benefit of hindsight.

Listen, I was on New Orleans against Dallas that day and obviously lost. But keep in mind what the Cowboys had done the previous two weeks before meeting the Saints. They were outplayed at home in a 20-17 loss to San Diego in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. And a week earlier they blew a 10-0 early lead in a 31-24 loss to the Giants on the road.

It's great to take a hot team in the playoffs, but you've still got to consider the body of work they compiled in the season's latter stages. And pricing Dallas as such a competitive dog means Minnesota is an undervalued favorite in my book.

You know how I loved backing the Vikings this season, especially at home where they were 8-0 SU, winning on average 33-16, outgaining their opponents 426-273 in total yards. That's a 153-yard differential per game.

Sure, Minny struggled down the stretch, but starting with the second half of the Monday night loss at Chicago through the regular season home finale blowout of the Giants, look at the numbers Brett Favre put up: 46-for-62....601 yards....6 TDs.

Unlike the Eagles, the Vikings have a strong ground game to complement Favre. And their offensive line protection, although spotty at times, is far superior to anything Philadelphia was able to bring to the table this entire season.

These teams shared four common opponents this year: Green Bay, Seattle, Carolina and the Giants. The Vikings went 4-1 both SU and ATS against that quartet, winning on average 31-18. On the other hand, Dallas went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS against them with a three-point average margin of victory (24-21).

This has been a series dominated by the Vikings over the years as they've won and covered five of the last six meetings. And although Tony Romo and the Cowboys have exorcised some late-season and playoff demons in recent weeks, it's still worth noting that Dallas is 2-10 SU (3-9 ATS) in its last 12 postseason highway outings, including 1-6 SU and ATS when coming off a win such as last week's versus Philly. Plus, Wade Phillips is 0-3 SU and ATS when catching points in the playoffs.

This game's prmce - which has jeen -3 practically all week - represents value for Minnesota backers like myself because I feel the Vikings should be laying at least 4 1/2 points in this contest, if not 6. But again, the oddsmakers have overreacted - as has the public - to the Cowboys' back-to-back routs of the Eagles. And, in this case, that's okay because that gives me exceptional value backing a team that's 8-0 at home, that's coming off a much-needed bye week that was preceded by a 44-7 rout of the Giants a week earlier.

Oh, and by the way, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Dallas lost both games against the Giants this season, 33-31 at home and 31-24 on the road. And in those two games, Eli Manning passed for 571 yards and four touchdowns. My money is on Favre having a big day against the Dallas "D," unlike Philly's Donovan McNabb, who didn't have the ground support or protection the past two Sundays needed to be successful.

Saturday, January 16

15 Dime Play

Teaser of the Year - Saints & Colts

This is what I told you....

Reduce the points you lay with both home favorites.

Using the standard six points you get in a two-team teaser, and based on the current prices of New Orleans -7 and Indianapolis -6 1/2 to -7, you are essentially making both the Saints and Colts 1-point home favorites.

When I handicap a card, I'm always looking for potential straight-up plays and potential teaser picks. And the game that appear to me most in a teaser are those where I've got a line between 6 and 9 points. Give me a home favorite, and it's even better. Thus is the case with New Orleans and Indianapolis today.

Do I feel that comfortable playing either team straight-up, laying around seven points, against their respective foes today? Absolutely not. But, let me manipulate the line by six points and make both of these clubs near pick-em at home, and I love them both.

Let's take a look at the New Orleans-Arizona game first. I know the Saints slumped down the homestretch, but the bye week and a meaningless regular season finale allowed Sean Payton to rest his weary troops. More importantly, it allowed two more weeks for his injury-riddled defense to get healthy. And today, for the first time in about two months, New Orleans will be fielding almost its entiring starting defense when it takes the field. And in the secondary especially, that's key with Kurt Warner coming to town.

As for Arizona, last week's overtime win was great to watch, but didn't it concern you that the Cardinals weren't able to protect a 17-0 lead at home? And didn't you feel - just like me - that if not for that final turnover in overtime that Green Bay would have marched down the field and won the game with a field goal or TD because Arizona's defense had no answers for Aaron Rodgers, who passed for 422 yards and 4 TDS despite playing catch-up all day long. Now this same Cardinal "D" is going to have to try to stop Drew Brees and his quick-strike attack. I just don't see it happening, and again, with the teaser I just need the Saints to basically win the game outright.

Scooting over to the Indianapolis-Baltimore game, the Colts' first-year head coach Jim Caldwell seemingly did everything right this season until he pulled Peyton Manning from Game 15 and cost the team a shot at an undefeated season. Caldwell sacrificed the season's final two games because he rightfully put the playoffs above everything else so today is put up or shut up time for this team.

Do I feel confident backing Peyton considering he's 0-3 in the postseason coming off a bye? Nope.

Do I feel confident laying so many points with the Colts considering they won seven of their 14 games this season by four points or less? Nope.

So, once again, this is the ideal spot to play Indianapolis in a teaser, just asking the Colts to win outright at home in a virtual pick-em affair after I've manipulated the line.

As for the Ravens, they were able to jump on New England early last weekend because of turnovers. Consequently, Joe Flacco wasn't called on to do much, Ray Rice just ran all day long, and the defense was able to attack non-stop. That is generally not the way they play nor the way most NFL games play out, either. The Colts don't turn the ball over and the offensive line affords Manning outstanding protection. Plus, don't forget this is also Baltimore fourth straight road game

Biggest Play of the Year - Part 2 (on 11/30)

30 Dime Release - Part 2

Saints - Winner

4-0 with 30 Dimers past two seasons

And this is what I told you...

Two weeks ago in my weekly TV show and various radio interviews, I was all over New England at Indianapolis, telling everyone to grab the points with the Patriots and even suggesting a smaller moneyline wager because I believed they were going to win the game outright. A cover they got, but you know how the final score went thanks to Bill Belichick's fourth-down gamble. Lost among the controversy over that call was the fact the Pats could not stop Indy's offense after opening up a big double-digit lead in the first half. Peyton Manning kept firing, marching the Colts up and down the field, putting them in the position to win the game if they got the ball back one more time, and Belichick's gamble presented them with that golden opportunity.

Both the Colts and Saints were undefeated and playing at home when the Patriots came calling. The difference between the two clubs? Indianapolis can't run the ball a lick; New Orleans entered the weekend with the league's No. 5 rushing attack as Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush have spearheaded a unit that's averaged 154.3 yards per game (4.8 ypc). That triumvirate tackles a New England defense that allows opposing ball carriers to average 4.4 yards per carry. Last week at home the Jets' Thomas Jones ran for 103 yards on 21 carries despite his team falling behind by 3 TDs early so this is not a stop unit that can be counted on.

The Patriots have more problems defensively that just stopping the run; their pass rush has generated just 18 sacks on the season. You don't beat Drew Brees, who has one of the quickest - if not the quickest - release in pro football, unless you pressure him continuously. Just ask Philadelphia's blitzers. Or those of the Giants. And with a strong ground game to rely on for the first time in his tenure in New Orleans, it's no wonder Brees is helming an offense averaging 36.9 points and 420.5 yards per game.

Where the Saints have been particularly dangerous this year is in the second half of games where they've outscored their foes 188-78. That margin swells to 105-24 in the fourth quarter. Both stats are troublesome for a New England defense that couldn't withstand the second-half comebacks of the Colts and Broncos, two previous undefeated teams they lost to on the road this season. And the Patriots often seem to have a patchwork defense held together by bailing wire and aging veterans like Junior Seau.

With the focus on Brees and the Saints' prolific scoring attack, their defense often gets overlooked, but on that side of the ball they entered the weekend leading the league with 29 takeaways, including 20 interceptions. Darren Sharper has rejuvenated the secondary and that takeaway figure is stunning considering the team had just 22 for all of last season.

Put aside the Belichick mystique against undefeated teams for a moment; he's 0-3 SU in those match-ups this season, losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts, all on the road. I'm telling you to put that aside, but I know the public isn't and they're also buying into the "don't bet against the Patriots as an underdog" shtick, too. That's why the price of this game has dropped steadily all week long. But public perception is often wrong, especially on Monday nights, and tonight will be no exception as the Saints expose New England's defensive flaws while proving to the NFL - and the viewing public - they are for real, breaking open a tight game after intermission before posting a solid 35-24 win.

Biggest Play of the Year (10/5)

30 Dime Release - Part 1

Vikings - Winner

And this is what I told you...

Strip away all the media hype surrounding Brett Favre's first encounter as a Viking with his former employers, and you have simply have two teams ready to do battle tonight. The host is favored by anywhere from 4 to 4 1/2 points. As I've noted previously, when lines are first announced on Sunday night, I handicap all the games and give them a projected line which I then compare to the actual posted price in Vegas. My line on tonight's game: Minnesota -7 to -7 1/2. Now you see why this play on the Vikings is rated so highly as the line - in my estimation - is still off by a field goal.

Much was made of Green Bay's success during the preseason, a time where its offense was unstoppable and the new 3-4 defensive scheme installed by veteran coordinator Dom Capers was providing immediate dividends. I watched their games and fell for the hype as well, forgetting that the preseason is simply four meaningless exhibition games primarily featuring second- and third-stringers. Yet in Week One, I was on the Packers as a 15 dime release in their home opener against Chicago and if not for a miracle 51-yard TD pass by Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes, I would have lost in a game in which the Bears thoroughly dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

Green Bay followed its opening win against Chicago by losing at home to Cincinnati and then trouncing a woeful St. Louis club on the road a week ago.

But red flags abound for the Packers, namely poor offensive line play and a defense that's been unable to stop the run or generate an adequate pass rush.

Rodgers has had precious little time in the pocket as he's already been sacked 12 times, hitting the deck a total of 10 times in the games against the Bears and Bengals. And his starting left tackle, Chad Clifton, is a game-time decision for this contest because of a sprained ankle. With or without his left tackle, Rodgers must contend with a Minnesota defense ranked fourth in the league overall with a 259.7 yard average yield. The Vikings, who were the No. 1 team in the NFL at stopping the run from the 2006-08 seasons, have also picked up eight sacks in the season's first three weeks with Jared Allen (two sacks, two forced fumbles) leading the way.

Note: Allen had 4 1/2 of Minnesota's 8 sacks of Rodgers. Conversely, the Packers never sacked Favre.

Defensively, Capers' new 3-4 scheme hasn't been able to reach the likes of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer or Marc Bulger as it has accounted for only five sacks in three weeks of action. And the Packers have been vulnerable to the run; the Bengals Cedric Benson shredded them for 141 yards on 29 carries at Lambeau in week two. That same unit is now tasked with trying to stop the NFL's leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who has gained 357 yards on the season. In Green Bay's last visit to the Metrodome, Peterson ran for 192 yards.

Forget the trends and ATS angles in this one; Minnesota is simply the more talented team and that's the reason I had them pegged as a TD favorite in this contest at the outset. The discrepancy between my projected price and the actual number in Vegas is what gives weight to my belief that the Vikings win comfortably, making Favre's first shot against his former mates this season a successful one.

SUPER BOWL RECORD

12-4-2 last 18

6-2 last 8

MY MISSION STATEMENT

If you've heard me on radio, seen me on TV, or watched my Free Video Reports either here or elsewhere online, you know I'm a straight-shooter and I've got no problem telling you exactly the way it is. If you want hype and hard sales pitches, you're looking in the wrong place, no ifs, ands or buts.

I only release plays on games I'm personally playing. If I'm not making a wager, neither are you.

The past couple of years I had not been an everyday player, but having recently moved to Las Vegas I'm back betting everyday which means you not only get my action all the time, but you can for the 1st time ever save big money on my plays by purchasing multi-day discount packages.